- Watch for the key leading indicator of impending Presidential downfall: the Vice President going silent. We will reach a point where the VP’s objective switches from defending the President to preserving his own viability as President. Right around that turning point he will try his best to avoid having to comment.
- That means that before reaching that point, Democrats will do their very best to get him to comment while they still have a chance. Knowing this of course makes the VP want to hide even sooner, etc. The unraveling may have already reached back to the present moment.
- At some point the VP himself becomes a threat to the President because Republicans in Congress will try to find the smoothest path to a fresh Presidency with the possibility of delivering on their agenda intact. This will involve coordination with the VP.
- That means the President himself will try to get the VP to publicly support him in order to ensure that the VP is tarred with the same brush, removing the above branch of the tree and maintaining the threat of a messy impeachment proceeding that congressional Republicans will want to avoid. Of course the first sign that the President needs the VP is the first signal to the VP that his best respond is to run far away, accelerating the unraveling further.
- This implies another leading indicator of impending doom. There will come a time when its the GOP that wants to hasten the proceedings and the Democrats will try to slow it down.
- Trump of course is the major wild-card (sic) in all of this. He has no loyalty to anybody and he has a massive megaphone whether he is in office our out. There is the prospect of Trump busting out tapes of conversations with GOP leaders expressing support. There is the possibility that he publicly turns on Pence before actually being removed from office.
- And of course the GOP is by no means out of the water once Trump is gone. He will be tweeting. He will have his “tapes”. He could even run again.
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The Long Game
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